SERVICE PLAYS
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Big Al 5* GOM
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over New England. Although the Patriots are in a ‘must-win’ situation, it doesn’t follow that they will automatically cover the spread. Indeed, the oddsmakers have over-compensated for New England’s desperate strait, as this line is about 10 points different than what it would have been six weeks ago. Buffalo and New England played in early November, and the Patriots won 20-10 as a 3.5-point favorite, yet have now been installed as a ROAD favorite of a touchdown. Perhaps this would be understandable if Buffalo had thrown in the towel after being eliminated from the playoffs, but that hasn’t happened. The Bills have been extremely competitive the past two weeks: Buffalo lost 31-27 to the Jets on December 14 as an 8-point underdog, and upset Denver last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Granted, New England has looked great the past two weeks, but its competition was the Raiders (one of the NFL’s worst teams) and the Cardinals, who didn’t play with their best players after clinching their division earlier in the month. Three weeks ago, New England struggled mightily to defeat a poor Seattle club, 24-21, as a 7-point favorite. This season, NFL teams are 23-16 when playing with same-season revenge, including 14-7 ATS as an underdog. Also, since December 2005, NFL teams are an awful 0-17 ATS on the road off a 23-point win, if they’re NOT getting 3+ points, and are matched up against an opponent that’s also off a win. With New England in off a 47-7 win over Arizona, the Patriots fall squarely within our 0-17 ATS angle. Buffalo also falls into 92-37 and 34-9 systems of mine which play on certain home dogs off road wins, and a 33-7 ATS “Last Home Game” system of mine. 5* NFL Game of the Month on the Bills.
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RON RAYMOND’S
5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 New England Patriots / Buffalo BillsUnder 40 -110
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ASA
NFL
6*Houston (NFL)
4*San Fransciso (NFL)
3* Arizona (NFL)
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Larry’s NFL 25-Club Play (3-0 TY in NFL!)
The Mike Hologren era is officially ending in Seattle with this Week 17 game in Phoenix against the Cards. Holmgren took over as Seattle’s GM and head coach prior to the 1999 season and promptly guided the Seahawks to an AFC West title and their first playoff appearance since 1988. Entering this year, the Seahawks had been to five straight postseasons (including a Super Bowl appearance vs the Steelers at the end of the 2005 season), which was tied with the Pats for the second-longest active playoff streak. However, 2008 has not been the type of ‘farewell tour’ Holmgren had hoped for. The Seahawks have a mediocre running game (112.1 YPG with just nine rushing TDs), All-pro QB Hasselbeck has been hurt for the better part of the season and the team’s receiving corps is sadly pathetic. Seattle ranks 26th in PPG (18.2) and 28th in YPG (270.3). Seattle was 2-11 before back-to-back wins over the Rams and Jets plus last week’s 13-3 win over the Jets is hardly typical of the team’s defensive effort, as Seattle enters the final game of the season ranked 30th in YPG (372.7). Beating the Jets in Holmgren’s final home game was a nice “send-off” but let’s remember that the Jets are in a ‘free-fall’ (have lost THREE of four and are in danger of missing the playoffs), while Seattle’s other three wins this year have come by beating the Rams twice (St Louis is arguably the NFL’s worst team at 2-13 with the NFL’s worst point-differential at minus-229) and the 49ers in Mike Singletary’s head coaching debut (San Fran is a different team now). As for the Cards, they’ve ended the NFL’s longest active playoff-drought this year (last postseason for Arizona was in 1998) and are division-winners for the first time since the franchise won the NFC East while in St Louis in back in 1975. However, the Cards have lost 35-14 at home to Minnesota (were down 28-0 at then half) and 47-7 at New England (were down 31-0 at the half) the last two weeks (since clinching that division title). It’s a weird situation for the Cards, as the results of the last two games make them the first team since the 1961 Raiders to trail 28-0 or worse at half in consecutive games. They’re also the first team in NFL history to trail by 30-plus points at halftime twice and still make playoffs in that season (the Cards also trailed the Jets 34-0 at the half in a 56-35 Week 4 loss). So what are we to make of the Cards this week? Their playoff seeding is locked up and the Cards won’t want to risk injury to QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower plus WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. However, reports indicate that the Cardinals are going to take this as a serious game, despite the fact that it means nothing in regards to the playoffs. We’ve already seen the line move quite a bit towards them. Kurt Warner is off his worst game of the season last week in New England, completing 6-of-18 passes for 30 yards with no TDs and no INTs (42.4 rating). Still, it’s been quite a “comeback year” for the two-time MVP, who has completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 4,320 yards with 26 TDs and 13 OINTs (95,5 rating). Fitzgerald (91 catches / 10 TDs) and Boldin (89 catches / 11 TDs) are both over 1,000 yards receiving and look for Breaston (72 catches / 915 yards) to join them this week. The running game is a mess (71.3 YPG ranks 32nd) but let’s look at what the Cards have accomplished this year. They’ve been obliterated on the East Coast, going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, getting outscored 202-102. However, they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their other 10 games. All reports are that head coach Whisenhunt feels his team can’t head into the playoffs (and have any chance at being successful), playing the way it has the last two weeks. I agree with that logic and the conventional wisdom of “giving up in Week 17 games” with nothing on the line may have been “shown up” last year, when Tom Coughlin’s Giants went “all out” against the Pats in their Week 17 (also with no playoff implications on the line) and then made that historic playoff run which ended with a Super Bowl win. There is no Super Bowl in the future for Phoenix but an easy win over Seattle, a team which played its ‘game’ last week at home vs the Jets, is in the ‘CARDS!
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Spylock
pro
New orleans……5 unit
buffalo……..1 unit
bowl game
N. Illinois…..1 unit
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Logical Approach = 12-10 ( 5-6 SIDES AND 7-4 TOTALS )
Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA - Sunday, December 28, 2008
Both teams rebounded from losing seasons in 2007 to earn this Bowl bid. The site greatly favors Louisiana Tech and the crowd support for Northern Illinois is expected to be minimal. NIU does have an edge in recent Bowl experience, having gone to 3 straight Bowls before missing last season. Tech’s most recent Bowl was back in 2001. Tech’s best win this season came in their first game, a home win over Mississippi State, a team that went on to have a losing season but an SEC team nonetheless. NIU also played well against an SEC foe, losing 13-9 at Tennessee in mid season. The Huskies also lost at Minnesota to open the season. The fundamental matchups favor Louisiana Tech as Northern Illinois’ passing attack is weak while LT’s defensive weakness is against the pass. Similarly, Tech has a potent running attack and while NIU’s seasonal stats are decent they allowed 3 of their last 4 foes to rush for over 215 yards. Northern Illinois did post the better overall defensive stats but their strength is against the pass. Tech is a running team and NIU is just average against the run. One are in which the Tech defense has excelled has been in allowing a meager 3.0 yards per rush, one of the lowest averages in the nation. While both teams figure to be excited to be here the site edge and the rarity of a Bowl game for Tech should add up to more intangibles favoring them. Louisiana Tech wins by 31-23, making
LOUISIANA TECH a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 1 Star Selection
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SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (28-20-1)
NFL WEEK 17
This time of year is tough for the oddsmakers, as teams that can’t improve their playoff position look to sit starters. In addition, there are some horrible and meaningless match-ups. We anticipate that Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from seven online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 17 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (26-21 = 55.3%)
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Time to “buy low and sell high.” A few weeks ago, some people were picking the Jets to be the AFC representative in the Superbowl. Since the Jets’ big win at Tennessee five games ago, the Jets have limped to a 1-3 record. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have put together a four-game winning streak and are tied with New England atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the Jets. The Jets looked bad last week against the lowly Seahawks while the Dolphins scored 38 points in defeating KC. Time to buy the Jets at a recent “low” and sell the Dolphins at a “peak.”
The “sharps” also feel that there is good value on the New York Jets. The line opened at CRIS at Jets -2.5. The majority of bets — especially teasers and parlays — are on Miami, but the line has ticked up to the “key three number.” There are still some 2.5’s available that we would grab ASAP.
Many of the Dolphins’ wins this year have been by just a few points. They beat the teams they should — but don’t seem to be as good as their 10-5 record. On the other hand, the Jets have been underperforming lately. Overall, we believe that the Jets are a better team, so we like giving less than a FG at home.
New York Jets -2.5 -110
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VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (22-13)
Tampa
Jax
Arizona
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Sixth Sense
Carolina –3 NEW ORLEANS 52.5
Crolina lost a game at NY last week they probably thought they had. It took a late Giants score plus a two point conversion and then a touchdown in OT to get the loss and, more importantly for me, the non-cover. Carolina was slightly out gained 6.5yppl to 6.4yppl but they allowed the Giants to rush for 301 yards at 7.3ypr and gained 4.5ypr themselves. They did out pass the Giants 9.7yps to 5.3yps. NO dominated Detroit from the start, scoring touchdowns on their first six possessions and never punting in the game. They out gained Detroit 6.0ypr to 4.8ypr, 8.8yps to 4.5yps and 7.6yppl to 4.6yppl. The Saints still can’t run the ball, averaging just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr but they have gotten better as of last with Pierre Thomas doing the running. =0 D They average 7.7yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Carolina has become very efficient on offense, gaining 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl overall. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Carolina by just one point and predict about 51 points. This should be a high scoring game but they have set the total too high for me to go over on. For years Carolina struggled here but they have now won the last six games played here. Historically they match up well but Carolina has now faced three teams that will probably make the playoffs and they are 0-3 SU against those teams. A fourth team, in SD, who will also probably make the playoffs, they won by just two points on the road back in the first game of the season (No Steve Smith in that game). Meanwhile, NO has gone 2-1 SU at home against playoff teams, with their only loss to Minnesota by three points, in a game they dominated but turnovers and blocked field goals sealed their fate in that game. Series history says Carolina, who with a loss, could fall from the #2 seed all the way down to the #4 seed but value and match up history from this year says NO. NEW ORLEANS 31 CAROLINA 28
NY JETS –2.5 Miami 42
The Jets were out played last week in Seattle, losing 13-3. They were out gained 4.8yppl to 4.4yppl and out passed 7.0yps to 4.3yps. They did out rush Seattle 4.6ypr to 3.3ypr. Miami won at KC but they were out gained badly in that game. KC out gained the Dolphins 7.6yppl to 6.3yppl, including out passing them 7.1yps to 6.9yps and out rushing them 8.6ypr to 5.6ypr. These teams are about even from the line of scrimmage. The Jets qualify in a late season situation, which is 23-2-0. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 206-12-15, 144-72-10, 139-77-8, 452-308-27 and 677-534-42, including a subset, which is 535-404-30. Numbers favor the Jets by just one point and predict about 44 points. Plenty of strong situations in their favor in this game laying a short number at home. The Jets have won nine of the past ten games here against Miami. Many of those were three point wins but that would be good enough for a cover here. NY JETS 27 MIAMI 17
SAN DIEGO –8 Denver 50
Well, well, well. Ed Hochuli has to love this game after seeing SD win at TB last week and Buffalo knock off Denver, giving SD a chance to atone for his bad call in the second week of the season, which took away a win from SD. The Chargers played well last week at TB, out gaining TB 6.4yppl to 5.3yppl, including out passing them 8.8yps to 6.2yps. Denver lost at home but they out gained Buffalo 7.3yppl to 5.3yppl, including out rushing them 6.7ypr to 3.3ypr a nd out passing Buffalo 7.6yps to 7.2yps. It was two turnovers that helped Buffalo win that game. Both teams offenses are about equal but the SD defense is much better than Denver. Denver allows 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl, while SD allows 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers only favor SD by five points and predict about 52 points. SD qualifies in a negative 52-26-1 letdown situation after their upset win last week. That situation isn’t quite strong enough for me to make Denver a best bet but it’s enough, along with some line value, to get me leaning their way. SAN DIEGO 30 DENVER 23
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igz1 sports
Sunday Action Early Card !!
NFL
4* Seattle +7 (-110)
4* Kansas City +3 (-110)
3* Miami +3 (-110)
3* New Orleans +1.5 (-110)
3* Detroit +12 (-110)
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